Frequently Asked Questions
Tactical Voting
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat is tactical voting
    Tactical voting is when you choose who to vote for based on which party or candidate is most likely to win. So you may choose to vote for your second or third choice because they are more likely to win than your first choice. Or because they are more likely to stop a candidate you dislike from winning. GetVoting.org makes recommendations based on which candidate is best placed to stop Boris Johnson's Tories getting a majority in Parliament.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhy vote tactically?
    This election is about Brexit. It's our chance to stop a hard-Brexit Tory majority for Boris Johnson. It's also about our futures. A Boris Johnson win would give his Tories five years to do what they like with the NHS, the economy and austerity. Tactical voting is the only way we can take control of our future, and outsmart the Brexiters.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightCan we beat the Tories?
    In 2017, tactical voting by Remainers helped stop Theresa May getting a majority. Our campaign will reach voters of all ages in all areas through social media advertising, effective campaigning and word of mouth. Tactical voting has the potential to make a truly historic impact on our democracy and our future.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat about the Brexit Party?
    Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is not standing against Tory MPs. They also stood down in some other areas to try to defeat pro-EU MPs. Our MRP analysis is the only data that takes account of the effect of Farage’s electoral pact. It's more important than ever that Remainers use their votes wisely, to outsmart the Brexiters.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWill enough people do it?
    Our data shows if only 30% of Remain voters vote tactically we can deny Boris Johnson a majority. What we mean is if just a third of people who are currently intending to vote for a pro-EU party or candidate switch to vote for our recommended candidate, we will stop Boris Johnson getting a parliamentary majority.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat about other tactical voting sites?
    All the anti-Brexit tactical voting sites agree on the vast majority of recommendations. Remainers and pro-Europeans should have total confidence to vote tactically for the best-placed candidate to stop the Tories. In the small number of constituencies where recommendations differ, it is because we are data-led and we believe it is important we base our advice on the most accurate and up-to-date data available.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhy shouldn’t I just vote for the candidate I think is most anti-Brexit?
    Because they might not be in the best position to beat the Tories. We know that if the Tories win a majority of MPs they will be able to push for the hardest possible Brexit and will have five years to do what they like with the country. That’s why tactical voting is vital. Our data shows which candidate is in the best place to beat the Tories.
Methodology
  • keyboard_arrow_rightHow do we make recommendations?
    Our decisions are data-led, based on our MRP polling analysis. But we also use, where available, political analysis of local candidates’ past statements and policies. We attempt to take into account Remain Alliances, Tory/Brexit pacts and the 'incumbency bounce' of existing MPs. This means we take into account both up-to-date data and the political situation as well.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat is MRP?
    Multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) is the new favoured approach for political forecasters. Our MRP modelling approach estimates the state of the race in each constituency, based on the super-massive YouGov voting intention datasets plus a huge post- stratification model that accurately represents the mix of voter types in each constituency, including 2.5 million different voter personas, and includes highly sophisticated turnout models.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightIs MRP accurate?
    It successfully predicted Trump’s victory, our 2017 hung parliament and Labour’s victories in Kensington and Canterbury in 2017. Our most recent MRP was based on a sample of over 28,000, our November MRP was over 39,000, and the MRP we used for our initial recommendations was undertaken in October 2019 on a sample size of 46,000 voters. All of which is much larger than the 2,000 sample that most national polls use.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat about 2017 election results?
    A lot has happened since the last General Election in 2017. Some parties have new leaders, others have changed their Brexit policies. This means we can’t rely on the 2017 vote shares in each seat to help us predict what will happen this time. That is why we are commissioning MRP analysis of polling that takes account of a huge number of different data points to accurately create seat-level predictions.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat about the Remain Alliance?
    We support Unite to Remain and efforts to get Pro-EU parties working together. Remain Alliance agreements have been made at the national level for some constituencies, some agreements have been made at local level by campaigners and some individual candidates have made statements about tactical voting in their areas. Our recommendations attempt to take all this into account.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightDo we support all Remain Alliance candidates?
    There may be constituencies where a Remain Alliance has been agreed but our data analysis proves it to be counterproductive and there is a candidate who is not participating in the ‘official’ Remain Alliance but who is pro-European and stands a better chance of being elected and beating the Conservatives/Brexit Party. In this case, we would recommend the alternative candidate.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightIs our data up-to-date?
    Our final update to our data and recommendations was made on Saturday 7th December, just 5 days before election day. Our most recent MRP was undertaken in early December 2019 on a sample size of over 28,000. Our November MRP was undertaken on a sample of over 39,000, and the MRP we used for our initial recommendations was undertaken in October 2019 on a sample size of 46,000 voters.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWait, I’m a nerd. Tell me more about your MRP.
    For our most recent MRP study Focaldata collected data from 28,272 respondents between 4th of November and the 5th of December 2019 using a range of online panel providers, including Opinium, BMG, and Focaldata’s own panel. Focaldata uses data from a range of suppliers to adjust for the ‘house effects’ between data providers. Focaldata's MRP model uses a range of individual and constituency level variables, these include (but are not limited to) age, gender, education, VoteGE2017, VoteEURef, population density, % long term unemployed, % leave 2016, GE2017 vote share, Deprivation index and EU parliament 2019 vote share. They use a bayesian exploded logit model, which is fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open-source software Stan. The models are trained on Google Cloud Platform.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightCan I look at all your data?
    We are happy to share our list of recommendations or our MRP data tables for those constituencies where we have made tactical voting recommendations. We love transparency, but we also have to be careful about how our data is used (we wouldn’t want Boris Johnson to get hold of it for example). You can contact us at compliance@bestforbritain.org and we will consider your request.
Scotland and Northern Ireland
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat about Northern Ireland?
    We do not intend to make any specific recommendations for candidates in Northern Ireland. There is relatively limited reliable polling on voting intention available for Northern Ireland, and while many of the parties and candidates standing for election in Northern Ireland have pro-European policies it is clear that some of those candidates would not take their seats in the UK Parliament if elected. Rather than risk making confusing, inaccurate or counter-productive recommendations, we have decided not to make a judgement. We recommend that voters identify a candidate in their constituency who best matches their views.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat about Scotland?
    We have made specific recommendations in some Scottish constituencies where it is possible the Conservatives could win. It is vital we vote for candidates who can stop the Tories. However, in other constituencies we have avoided giving specific advice as it is clear that pro-Europeans are likely to win regardless and we do not believe it would be helpful or desirable for us to attempt to choose between parties who are our allies in the fight against Brexit.
Best for Britain
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat is Best for Britain?
    We are a cross party campaign with a mission to stop Brexit by any democratic means.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWhat do we know about tactical voting?
    Best for Britain has experience running tactical voting campaigns and we know how to reach voters and how to use and analyse the data to make the right predictions. In the 2019 European Elections over 12 million impressions of our voting site were made on social media.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightAre we biased?
    We consider each candidate and their position on Brexit in our recommendations - this means we considered supporting Green, Plaid Cymru, Lib-Dem, Labour, and Independent candidates based on their willingness to do the right thing as well as their chance of beating the Brexiter candidates. We’ve taken these decisions on a case-by-case basis in every seat.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightWho funds us
    Best for Britain has thousands and thousands of individual donors and we are grateful to all those who have contributed to our campaign. During election periods we are required to report details of donations we have received for spending on election-related activity to the Electoral Commission who will publish it on their website after the election.
  • keyboard_arrow_rightHow do we intend to stop Brexit?
    By any democratic means necessary. Electing a majority of pro-European MPs to Parliament and stopping Boris Johnsons' Tories is currently the best chance we have to stop Brexit.
Published and promoted by Rudi Shenk on behalf of Best for Britain, the campaign name of UK-EU OPEN POLICY LIMITED registered at International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London, EC1A 2BN. Best for Britain is registered with The Electoral Commission.

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